Towards the 15th Five-Year Plan:“U”-Shaped Path and Policy Recommendations for AI-Driven Energy Structure Transition
Pan Ziyan1, Gao Hanzhi2, Liu Siyuan3
1. School of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830046,China; 2. School of International Studies,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China; 3. School of Population and Health,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China
Abstract：Artificial intelligence(AI)significantly influences the global energy structure transition.Based on panel data from 61 countries over the period 1993 to 2023,this study systematically examines the nonlinear impact of AI on energy structure transition and the moderating roles of energy intensity,government R&D investment,and digitalization.The findings reveal a“U”-shaped nonlinear relationship:AI initially inhibits the transition but promotes it after surpassing a critical threshold.Heterogeneity analysis shows that this“U”-shaped pattern is primarily observed in developing countries and resource-based countries.Moderation analysis indicates that excessive energy intensity and government R&D investment can invert the“U”-shaped curve into an inverted“U”,whereas higher digitalization gradually steers the curve toward positive linearity.Based on these results,and in line with China's 15th Five-Year Plan,the study proposes policies such as orderly AI deployment,optimized government R&D funding,and enhanced digitalization to support high-quality economic development and the Beautiful China initiative.
潘紫燕, 高翰之, 刘思园. 面向“十五五”:人工智能驱动能源结构转型的“U”型路径与政策建议[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2026(6): 78-86.
Pan Ziyan, Gao Hanzhi, Liu Siyuan. Towards the 15th Five-Year Plan:“U”-Shaped Path and Policy Recommendations for AI-Driven Energy Structure Transition. , 2026(6): 78-86.
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