Breaking the Technology Lock-in Through“Technology Transition”in Carbon-Based Chips
Chen Pei1,2, Xuan Zhaohui2, Li Xinrong3, Yang Wu4
1. School of Business Administration,Ningbo University of Finance and Economics,Ningbo 315175,China; 2. Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development,Beijing 100038,China; 3. Business School,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China; 4. School of Economics and Management,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China
Abstract：Technology Transition (TT)is not only an important means to alleviate the risk of technology supply disruption and ensure the controllable security of the supply chain,but also an inevitable choice to break through the technology lock-in imposed by developed countries.Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV)lithography and carbon-based electronic technology are two key high-end chip technology fields.This paper compares and analyzes the technology lock-in effects in these two fields from the dimensions of technical characteristics and innovation entities,and proposes the theoretical mechanism and strategies for breaking through the lock-in of carbon-based chips through TT.The research finds that,compared with carbon-based electronics,from the perspective of technical paths,EUV lithography has a serious lock-in effect.From the perspective of innovation entities,the technological lock-in intensity gap between China and leading countries in EUV lithography is large,verifying the feasibility of TT for carbon-based electronics.This study provides new reference strategies for the selection of technological entry points and the breaking of technology lock-in for latecomers.
[1] 杨超,李伟,贺俊.美对华半导体管制的趋势、实施要点与中国因应[J].产业经济评论,2024 (2):187-200. [2] 曾海峰,郭磊,李世光,等.从极紫外光刻发展看全球范围内的技术合作[J].激光技术,2023,47 (1):1-12. [3] 杨武,陈培,DavidGad,等.技术轨道延伸与破解技术路径锁定研究:以光刻产业为例[J].科学学研究,2023,41 (6):1014-1026. [4] 余江,陈凤,郭玥.现代化产业体系中科技创新与产业创新的深度融合:全球新一代光刻系统的启示[J].中国科学院院刊,2024,39 (7):1141-1152. [5] 刘一凡,张志勇.后摩尔时代的碳基电子技术:进展、应用与挑战[J].物理学报,2022,71 (6):7-42. [6] 蒋启蒙,朱雪忠,滕子优.技术锁定述评:知识框架与未来展望[J].科研管理,2023,44 (6):17-28. [7] 杨武,陈培,David Gad.专利引证视角下技术轨道演化与技术锁定识别:以光刻技术为例[J].科学学研究,2022,40 (2):209-219. [8] 蒋启蒙,朱雪忠,刘睿.外国企业在华专利独占性的技术路径依赖效应:来自集成电路制造业的证据[J].中国软科学,2025 (4):41-52. [9] DAVID P A.Clio and the economics of QWERTY[J].American Economic Review,1985,75 (2):332-337. [10] ARTHUR W B.Competing technologies,increasing returns,and lock-in by historical events[J].The Economic Journal,1989,99 (394):116-131. [11] BASSANINI A,DOSI G.Competing Technologies,Technological Monopolies and the Rate of Convergence to a Stable Market Structure[R].HAL,1999. [12] LIEBOWITZ S J,MARGOLIS S E.Path dependence,lock-in,and history[J].Journal of Law Economics and Organization,1995,11 (1):205-226. [13] SIMMIEA J.Path dependence and new technological path creation in the Danish wind power industry[J].European Planning Studies,2012,20 (5):753-772. [14] 赵芸潼,杜玉申.技术缠结及利益关联的技术锁定效应研究[J].科学学研究,2020,38 (10):1800-1810. [15] 林敏,吴贵生,熊鸿儒.技术轨道理论对后发者追赶的启示研究[J].中国科技论坛,2013 (9):13-19. [16] PÉREZ C,SOETE L.Catching up in technology:Entry barriers and windows of opportunity[M].London:Technical Change and Economic Theory,1988,458-479. [17] 陈培.技术路径锁定的形成机理与破解研究[D].北京:北京科技大学,2023. [18] 孙宇.基于中国情境的技术创新对技术轨道跃迁的影响研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2016. [19] ROBINSON D,LAGNAU A,BOON W.Innovation path ways in additive manufacturing:Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2018,146. [20] 梅亮.国家科技战略:芯片产业美对华行动逻辑与启示[J].科学学研究,2025,43 (1):3-13. [21] 王立娜,唐川,徐婧.全球碳基电子技术发展态势分析[J].世界科技研究与发展,2021,43 (5):547-558. [22] 马荣康,刘凤朝.技术体制视角的中国技术领域比较优势演变特征分析[J].管理评论,2019,31 (5):118-127. [23] 李梦柯,王芳.产业创新的科学知识特征对中国技术追赶的影响[J].科研管理,2024,45 (3):10-19. [24] MALERBA F,ORSENIGO L.Technological regimes and firm bebavior[J].Industrial and Corporate Change,1996,2 (1). [25] LEE K,LIM C.Technological regimes,catching-up and leap frogging:Findings from the Korean industries[J].Research Policy,2001,30 (3):459-483. [26] 唐春晖,唐要家.技术模式与中国产业技术追赶[J].中国软科学,2006 (4):59-65. [27] HU M,PHILLIPS F,WU C,et al.The influence of the technological regime on the global light-emitting diode industry:Lessons from innovative leaders and late comers[J].Innovation,2015,17:114-191. [28] JONES P,HUDSON J.Standardization and the costs of assessing quality[J].European Journal of Political Economy,1996,12 (2):355-361. [29] ZHAO L,SUN J,ZHANG L,et al.Effects of technology lock-in on enterprise innovation performance[J].European Journal of Innovation Management,2021,24 (5):1782-1805. [30] LEE K,GAO X D,LI X B.Industrial catch-upin China:a sectoral systems of innovation perspective[J].Cambridge Journal of Regions,Economy and Society,2017,10 (1):59-76. [31] ROSIELLO A,MALEKI A.A dynamic multi-sector analysis of technological catch-up:The impact of technology cycle times,knowledge base complexity and variety[J].Research Policy,2021,50 (3):104194. [32] SRIVASTAVA M K,GNYAWAL D R.When do relational resources matter?Leveraging portfolio technological resources for breakthrough innovation[J].IEEE Engineering Management Review,2017,45 (2):83-96. [33] 孙瑜康,吕爽,崔丹.区域知识基础理论及其对中国区域创新的启示[J].科学学研究,2022,40 (2):366-375. [34] 李长英,赵忠涛.技术多样化对企业创新数量和创新质量的影响研究[J].经济学动态,2020 (6):15-29. [35] ARROW K J.Economic Welfare and the Allocation of Resources for Invention[M]//ROWLEY C K.Readings in Industrial Economics:Volume Two:Private Enterprise and State Intervention.London:Macmillan Education UK,1972:219-236. [36] 俞立平.技术积累提高了区域创新数量还是创新质量[J].科技进步与对策,2022,39 (17):30-40. [37] 谢芳,陈劲.许可经历对企业专利质量的影响:基于专利引用的分析[J].中国科技论坛,2017 (10):135-144. [38] WANG L,JIANG S,ZHANG S.Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources:a case study of 3D printing technologies[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2020,161:120251. [39] NAGAOKA S.Assessing the R&D management of a firm interms of speed and science linkage:Evidence from the US patents[J].Journal of Economics & Management Strategy,2007,16 (1):129-156. [40] CHEN Y,CHANG K.Using the entropy-based patent measure to explore the influences of related and unrelated technological diversification upon technological competences and firm performance[J].Scientometrics,2012,90 (3):825-841. [41] WICKHAM P A.Strategic Entrepreneurship:A Decision-making Approach to New Venture Creation and Management[M].London:Pitman,1998. [42] CORROCHER N,MALERBA F,MORRISON A.Technologica lregimes,patent growth,and catching-up in green technologies[J].Industrialand Corporate Change.2021,30 (4):1084-1107.
2025, 
