全球价值链韧性跃升的数字化路径研究:基于供需风险分散的视角

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摘要提升产业链价值链韧性成为当前各国经济行稳致远的核心命题。本文从供需风险结构重塑视角,双向解构数字化驱动全球价值链韧性提升的机理。研究发现:产业数字化通过提高供需风险敞口分散度显著增强价值链韧性。异质性分析显示,国内数字投入对于供需两侧的价值链韧性提升具有关键作用,而国外数字投入对供给侧呈现出抑制效应;数字化对价值链低嵌入度、高创新转化力行业的价值链韧性的提升效果更显著,但下游需求侧的数字化影响在创新成果转化力维度无明显差异。机制检验表明,数字化能够通过“核心技术主权突围”与“价值链成本压缩”的双轮驱动,实现“补链强链”与“扩链固链”的协同效应。本文为数字经济时代下构建安全可靠的全球价值链治理体系提供理论支撑。

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	刘玥
	邵宇佳

关键词 ：产业数字化, 全球价值链韧性, 智能制造, 跨境电商

Abstract：Enhancing the resilience of industrial and value chains has become a core imperative for countries seeking sustainable economic development.This study examines the mechanism of how digitalization enhances global value chain resilience from the perspective of reshaping supply-demand risk structures.Research findings indicate that industrial digitalization significantly boosts value chain resilience through increased diversification of risk exposure.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that domestic digital investments play a pivotal role in strengthening resilience on both supply and demand sides,while foreign digital investments exhibit a suppressive effect on the supply side.Digitalization demonstrates more pronounced effects on industries with low value chain embeddedness and high innovation conversion capabilities,though its impact on downstream demand-side shows no significant difference in innovation conversion capacity.Mechanistic tests reveal that digitalization achieves synergistic effects of“chain supplementation and strengthening”and“chain expansion and consolidation”through dual drivers:“core technology sovereignty breakthrough”and“value chain cost compression”.This study provides theoretical support for building a secure and reliable global value chain governance system in the digital economy era.

Key words： Industrial digitalization Global value chain resilience Intelligent manufacturing Cross-border e-commerce

收稿日期: 2025-09-11

PACS:	F414
	F49

基金资助:浙江省社科联研究课题“全球价值链韧性跃升的数字化路径研究——基于供需风险分散的视角”(26XSYT020),教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“人工智能驱动我国企业出口贸易网络重构的机制及路径研究”(25YJC790072),国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球出口管制治理发展趋势及中国方案研究”(25&ZD201)。

通讯作者: 邵宇佳

作者简介: 刘玥(1996—),女,江苏常州人,博士、讲师,研究方向为数字创新、全球价值链。

引用本文:

刘玥, 邵宇佳. 全球价值链韧性跃升的数字化路径研究:基于供需风险分散的视角[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2026(4): 50-59.
Liu Yue, Shao Yujia. Research on the Digital Path of the Leap of Resilience of Global Value Chain:From the Perspective of Supply and Demand Risk Diversification. , 2026(4): 50-59.

链接本文:

http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/CN/Y2026/I4/50

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