U.S.Technology Blockades,Supply Chain Decoupling Risk, and Industrial Chain Resilience-The Role of New Quality Productive Forces in Strengthening Industrial and Supply Chains
Xiao Hongbo1, Fan Xu1, Liu Wei2, Lin Taojie3
1. School of Public Administration,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China; 2. School of Economics and Management,Guangdong University of Petrochemical Techology,Maoming 525000,China; 3. Guangdong Productivity Promotion Center,Guangzhou 510075,China
Abstract：Strengthening the resilience and security of industrial and supply chains is central to advancing China's high-quality development.Facing escalating pressure from the U.S.,China must seek strategic responses to great-power competition through industrial transformation.This study focuses on the U.S.Section 301 investigation and develops a framework explaining how American technological containment poses risk of decoupling to China's supply chain and industrial chain resilience.Using micro-level data from 2010 to 2023 of China's listed firms,this study finds that the U.S.technology restrictions increase decoupling risk while simultaneously fostering resilience.Mechanism analysis shows that the blockade heightens decoupling risk by weakening supply-demand matching,lowering supply-demand quality,and inducing firm exit,yet forces China to enhance its resilience by prompting greater R&D investment,accelerating digital transformation,and encouraging domestic market re-entry.Heterogeneity analysis indicates stronger decoupling effects are more obvious in upstream firms,non-state-owned enterprises,and firms with lower subsidy support,and resilience are more evidently gained in state-owned firms and those with limited subsidies.Further results show that developing new quality productive forces both mitigates disruptive impacts and amplifies resilience building.Overall,the findings highlight the adaptive capacity of China's industrial system and underscore the strategic importance of cultivating new quality productive forces in countering technological containment and advancing Chinese modernization.
肖鸿波, 范旭, 刘伟, 林韬杰. 美国技术封锁、断链风险与产业链韧性——兼论新质生产力的强链作用[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2026(3): 170-179.
Xiao Hongbo, Fan Xu, Liu Wei, Lin Taojie. U.S.Technology Blockades,Supply Chain Decoupling Risk, and Industrial Chain Resilience-The Role of New Quality Productive Forces in Strengthening Industrial and Supply Chains. , 2026(3): 170-179.
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