Research on the Identification and Prediction Methods of Frontier Technologies ——Based on the Patent Topic Similarity Network and Technology Evolution Law
Wu Chuan1, Wang Hongqi1, Wang Shanshan2
1. School of Economics and Management, Harbin University of Science and Technology, Harbin 150080, China; 2. School of Business Administration, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou 310018, China
Abstract：Frontier technologies refer to the guiding and advanced core technologies in high-tech fields.The accurate identification and prediction of frontier technologies is crucial to the effective allocation of technical resources.From the perspective of patent topic similarity, this study develops a frontier technology identification method covering outlier technologies, and introduces the technology evolution law (nine screen method)of the TRIZ theory to predict the future frontier technologies, including determining the current system, identifying technological evolution points and extending prediction.By collecting the data of graphene patents from 2001 to 2021, this study empirically identifies and predicts the frontier technologies in the graphene field.The findings show that the frontier technology identification method developed in this study can make up for the lack of completeness of traditional identification methods, and accurately identify the outliers and non-hot frontier technologies.The extending prediction results of frontier technologies are of great reference value for the technology layout of future industries.
武川, 王宏起, 王珊珊. 前沿技术识别与预测方法研究——基于专利主题相似网络与技术进化法则[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2023(4): 34-42.
Wu Chuan, Wang Hongqi, Wang Shanshan. Research on the Identification and Prediction Methods of Frontier Technologies ——Based on the Patent Topic Similarity Network and Technology Evolution Law. , 2023(4): 34-42.
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