On the Local Employment Multiplier Effect of High-Tech Industry
Wang Zengyang1, Zhang Xueliang2
1.School of Economics,Anhui University of Finance & Economics,Bengbu 233030,China; 2.School of Urban and Regional Science,Shanghai University of Finance & Economics,Shanghai 200433,China
Abstract：This paper uses the provincial employment data to estimate the impact of high-tech industry employment on manufacturing employment and service employment.The results show that for every 1% increase in employment in the high-tech sector,about 7% of the institution manufacturing industry,about 2% of the non-institution employment and about 1.6% of the employment in the institution services sector can be created.The effect of high-tech industry on employment creation of institution manufacturing is greater than that of non-institution manufacturing industry.The employment multiplier effect of high-tech industry on the employment of institution services industry is obvious,while the employment multiplier effect on non-institution services industry is not obvious.This shows that the development of high-tech industries is helpful to improve employment quality.By use of intermediary effect test model,it is found that the high-tech industry's contribution to service employment is formed by promoting the intermediary role of manufacturing employment.The development of the high-tech industry can not directly promote the employment growth of the services industry.
汪增洋, 张学良. 高技术产业的地区就业乘数效应研究[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2020(1): 134-142.
Wang Zengyang, Zhang Xueliang. On the Local Employment Multiplier Effect of High-Tech Industry. , 2020(1): 134-142.
[1]姚战琪,夏杰长.资本深化、技术进步对中国就业效应的经验分析[J].世界经济,2005(1):58-67. [2]叶仁荪,王光栋,王雷.技术进步的就业效应与技术进步路线的选择——基于1990—2005年中国省际面板数据的分析[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2008(3):137-147. [3]胡雪萍,李丹青.技术进步就业效应的区域差异研究——基于中国东、中、西部地区的比较分析[J].上海经济研究,2015(8):3-10. [4]朱轶,熊思敏.技术进步、产业结构变动对我国就业效应的经验研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009(5):107-119. [5]杨浩昌,李廉水,刘军.科技创新与制造业就业[J].经济问题探索,2016(3):108-115. [6]何平,骞金昌.中国制造业:技术进步与就业增长实证分析[J].统计研究,2007(9):3-11. [7]吴翌琳.技术创新与非技术创新对就业的影响研究[J].统计研究,2015(11):59-64. [8]COAD A,RAO R.The firm-level employment effects of innovations in high-tech US manufacturing industries[J].Journal of evolutionary economics,2011,21(2):255-283. [9]MORETTI E.Local multipliers[J].American economic review,2010,100(2):373-377. [10]MORETTI E,THULIN P.Local multipliers and human capital in the united states and sweden[J].Industrial & corporate change,2013,22(1):339-362. [11]GOOS M,KONINGS J,VANDEWEYER M.Employment growth in Europe:the roles of innovation,local job multipliers and institutions[J].Working papers vives research centre for regional economics,2015. [12]张川川.地区就业乘数:制造业就业对服务业就业的影响[J].世界经济,2015(6):70-87. [13]王伟光,马胜利,姜博.高技术产业创新驱动中低技术产业增长的影响因素研究[J].中国工业经济,2015(3):70-82. [14]张钟文,叶银丹,许宪春.高技术产业发展对经济增长和促进就业的作用研究[J].统计研究,2017(7):37-48. [15]张少军,刘志彪.产业升级与区域协调发展:从全球价值链走向国内价值链[J],经济管理,2013(8):30-40. [16]袁志刚,高虹.中国城市制造业就业对服务业就业的乘数效应[J].经济研究,2015(7):30-41. [17]BARON R M,KENNY D A.The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:conceptual,strategic and statistical considerations[J].Journal of personality & social psychology,1987,51(6):1173-1182. [18]蔡昉,都阳,高文书.就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策——为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业[J].经济研究,2004(9):18-25. [19]薛进军,高文书.中国城镇非正规就业:规模、特征和收入差距[J].经济社会体制比较,2012(6):59-69. [20]胡鞍钢,赵黎.我国转型期城镇非正规就业与非正规经济(1990—2004)[J].清华大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2006(3):111-119. [21]徐蔼婷,刘波.贸易开放对非正规就业规模影响的实证研究——来自中国省级面板数据的证据[J].商业经济与管理,2014(6):86-96. [22]格鲁伯,沃克.服务业的增长:原因与影响[M].陈彪如,译.上海:上海三联书店,1989. [23]顾乃华.我国城市生产性服务业集聚对工业的外溢效应及其区域边界——基于HLM模型的实证研究[J].财贸经济,2011(5):115-122. [24]余华义.城市化、大城市化与中国地方政府规模的变动[J].经济研究,2015(10):104-118. [25]王小鲁.中国城市化路径与城市规模的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2010(10):20-32.
2020, 
