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| A Comparative Study on Active Users Change Based on Three Growth Models |
| Yang Chao,Wei Huaian |
| College of Public Administration,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China |
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Abstract Using MATLAB to evaluate parameters and based on the active users data from the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2015,it compares the goodness of fitting among the three growth models and predict the future trend of Wechat acceptance amount.The study results show all three growth models indicate good fitness to the active user data in general,but the differences in fitting and prediction exist in different periods,revealing that logistic model is closest to the actual value in the early stage,but deviates later relatively;Weibull model is exactly the reverse;Gompertz model is between the other two models and stable in fitting prediction.The study compares the growth models to provide the mathematical basis for the management strategy transformation to business ecosystem in the age of “Internet Plus”
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Received: 23 June 2015
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2016, Vol. 0 
