风险或稳定——科技金融发展的异质性分析

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Abstract The development of science and technology finance is a close combination of science innovation and economic development,which may have risks while promoting steady economic development.This paper chooses a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters (SV-TVP-SVAR)to empirically test the direct and indirect channels through which the development of science and technology finance affects economic stability in China from 1998 to 2018,and takes into account the immediate effects caused by important reforms in the development history of science and technology finance.The results of the study show that,firstly,in the direct transmission channel of “the development of science and technology finance affects economic stability”,the heterogeneous period effects differ significantly.The difference is between the boom and the later stages of the crisis,where science nd technology finance has a positive effect on economic stability,and the crisis period has a worsening effect.Secondly,in the indirect transmission channel where systemic finance risk is the mediating variable,the impact of science and technology finance on risk generates heterogeneous changes in effects over the lag period,while the transmission of risk to economic stability is characterized by volatile deterioration,suggesting the existence of impediments to long-term transmission channels.Finally,through the observation of different development points of science and technology finance,it is found that promoting the scale development of science and technology finance is more effective in stabilizing the economy and preventing risks than expanding financing channels (the establishment of the New Third Board)and relying solely on financial support.Therefore,science and technology finance in the broadening of the capital market multiple financing models at the same time,to prevent the possibility of corporate default risk,to unblock the good channel from science and technology to the economy.

Key words： Science and technology finance Economic stability Systemic finance risk Heterogeneity

Received: 13 October 2020

PACS:

F832

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	Articles by authors
	He Jian
	Zheng Zhiyong
	Li Feng
	Zhang Mengting

Cite this article:

He Jian,Zheng Zhiyong,Li Feng, et al. Risk or Stability Analysis on the Heterogeneity of Science and Technology Finance[J]. , 2021, 2(7): 158-168.

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http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/Y2021/V2/I7/158

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