基于炒作周期曲线的新兴技术态势及政策系统供给研究

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (8)

Download: PDF (7777 KB) HTML (0 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract The United States has published Gartner Cycle Reports for 25 years to help to anchor its position in the emerging technologies in the whole world.The research on how to grasp the trend of emerging technologies would provide key information to the new round of government technology.This research builds the database of emerging technologies on the basis of Gartner Hype Cycle from 2000 to 2019,analyzes the characteristics of 245 technologies in the IT field by describing the high-frequency emerging technology,the maturity and disappearance of emerging technology,and the expansion and decline speed of technology expectation.We also make good use of the CNKI Key Newspapers Database to display the relevance between technology expectations recognition and the positioning of one technology on the curve.The research results are as follows:Only 5 technologies experienced the whole process;The expected average expansion time is slightly higher than the average attenuation time and individual-related technologies are much faster than the organization-application technologies in the above time length;The bell curve is left-sided and it takes 1-4 years from the trough to maturity;Environment revolution and concept technology hype could partially explain the disappearance;By taking the example of high-frequency,matured,disappeared and expectation expanded technologies,the position that one technology is on the curve could be estimated in advance by its news media exposure.On this basis,we develop a model for IT field emerging technology policy system design and provide a plan for the technology planning with consideration of public expectation,which would be reference for the government management practice for emerging technologies.

Key words： Technology maturity Hype cycle curve Emerging technology Technology planning

Received: 06 July 2020

PACS:

G350

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	Yang Chao
	Meng Xianyin

Cite this article:

Yang Chao,Meng Xianyin. Research on the Development Trend and Policy System Construction of Emerging Technologies Based on Hype Cycle[J]. , 2021, 2(3): 17-27.

URL:

http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/Y2021/V2/I3/17

[1]李欣,谢前前,黄鲁成,等.基于SAO结构语义挖掘的新兴技术演化轨迹研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2018,39(1):17-31.
[2]CARBONELL J,SÁNCHEZ-ESGUEVILLAS A,CARRO B.Easing the assessment of emerging technologies in technology observatories.Findings about patterns of dissemination of emerging technologies on the internet[J].Technology analysis & strategic management,2018,30(1):113-129.
[3]KLINCEWICZ K.The emergent dynamics of a technological research topic:the case of graphene[J].Scientometrics,2016,106(1):319-345.
[4]HEADING R C.Proton pump inhibitor failure in gastro-oesophageal reflux disease:a perspective aided by the Gartner hype cycle[J].Clinical medicine,2017,17(2):132-136.
[5]KHODAYARI M,ASLANI A.Analysis of the energy storage technology using hype cycle approach[J].Sustainable energy technologies and assessments,2018,25:60-74.
[6]CHEN O,WALKER M.Hype cycle for emerging technologies,2017[R].2017.
[7]SMITH D,BURKE B.Hype cycle for emerging technologies,2019[R].2019.
[8]KIRKELS A.Biomass boom or bubble? A longitudinal study on expectation dynamics[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2016,103:83-96.
[9]HJÖRLEIFSSON S,ÁRNASON V,SCHEI E.Decoding the genetics debate:hype and hope in Icelandic news media in 2000 and 2004[J].New genetics and society,2008,27(4):377-394.
[10]ARNALL A,PARR D.Moving the nanoscience and technology(NST)debate forwards:short-term impacts,long-term uncertainty and the social constitution[J].Technology in society,2005,27(1):23-38.
[11]BORTFELD T,MARKS L B.Hype cycle in radiation oncology[J].International journal of radiation oncology biology physics,2013,86(5):819-821.
[12]RUEF A,MARKARD J.What happens after a hype? How changing expectations affected innovation activities in the case of stationary fuel cells[J].Technology analysis & strategic management,2010,22(3):317-338.
[13]PRINSLOO T,VAN DEVENTER J P.Using the Gartner hype cycle to evaluate the adoption of emerging technology trends in higher education——2013 to 2016[C]//HUANG T C,LAU R,HUANG Y M,et al.Emerging technologies for education.Springer International Publishing,2017:49-57.
[14]FENN J,LINDEN A.2000 hype cycle of emerging technologies[R].2000.
[15]GRASNICK A.The hype cycle in 3d displays:inherent limits of(auto)stereoscopy[G]//QUAN C,QIAN K,ASUNDI A.International conference on optics in precision engineering and nanotechnology(icopen2013).Bellingham:Spie-Int Soc Optical Engineering,2013,8769:UNSP 87690T.
[16]MCPHERSON M S,BACOW L S.Online higher education:beyond the hype cycle[J].Journal of economic perspectives,2015,29(4):135-154.
[17]WHITE G R T,SAMUEL A.Programmatic advertising:forewarning and avoiding hype-cycle failure[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2019,144:157-168.
[18]JUN S P.A comparative study of hype cycles among actors within the socio-technical system:with a focus on the case study of hybrid cars[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2012,79(8):1413-1430.
[19]FRIES M,LIENKAMP M.Technology assessement based on growth functions for prediction of future development trends and the maximum achieveable potential[C]//2016 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management(IEEM).2016:1563-1568.
[20]BRUUN A,JENSEN K E,KRISTENSEN D H,et al.Escaping the trough:towards real-world Impact of tabletop research[J].International journal of human-computer interaction,2017,33(2):77-93.
[21]VERBONG G,GEELS F W,RAVEN R.Multi-niche analysis of dynamics and policies in Dutch renewable energy innovation journeys(1970—2006):hype-cycles,closed networks and technology-focused learning[J].Technology analysis & strategic management,2008,20(5):555-573.
[22]宋宝林,陈丽云.技术创新扩散境域及对策分析——基于技术成熟度曲线的哲学解读[J].科学管理研究,2016,34(2):30-32+41.
[23]张学义,范阿翔.基于技术成熟度曲线的人工智能审视[J].科学技术哲学研究,2019,36(2):14-19.
[24]VAN LENTE H,SPITTERS C,PEINE A.Comparing technological hype cycles:towards a theory[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2013,80(8):1615-1628.
[25]MULLANY M.8 lessons from 20 years of hype cycles[EB/OL].[2020-04-30].https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/8-lessons-from-20-years-hype-cycles-michael-mullany?trk=portfolio_article-card_title.
[26]HUNG L,FENN J.Hype cycle for emerging technologies,2012[R].2012.
[27]WALKER M,BURTON B.Hype cycle for emerging technologies,2015[R].2015.
[28]芬恩,拉斯金诺.精准创新:如何在合适的时间选择合适的创新[M].北京:中国财富出版社,2014.
[29]BARNES H,HARE J,JACKIE FENN,et al.How analyst relations should use Gartner hype cycles to support marketing strategy and execution[R].2020.
[30]钟书华.论科技举国体制[J].科学学研究,2009,27(12):1785-1792.
[31]刘天星.科技发展亟须构建新型举国体制[N].学习时报,2019-07-17(6).