美国经济政策不确定性是否影响中国技术创新

Abstract
Figure/Table
References
Related Citation (15)

Download: PDF (19109 KB) HTML (1 KB)
Export: BibTeX | EndNote (RIS)

Abstract Based on import and export trade and long-term international capital flow transmission channels,the paperuses the TVP-SV-FAVAR model to do empirical test.The results indicate that:The uncertainty of US economic policy has an impact on China's technological innovation.This influence is also characterized by time-varying characteristics.Since the US Trump administration won the election,the rise of US economic policy uncertainty has significantly inhibited China's technological innovation.Trade and long-term international capital are important carriers and transmission channels for international advanced knowledge and technology spillover into China.Then the further analysis finds that under the new normal,the uncertainty of US economic policy has lowered the scale of China's import and export trade and the inflow of long-term international capital to China.

Key words： US economic policy uncertainty TVP-SV-FAVAR Technological innovation

Received: 25 January 2019

PACS:

F062.3

	Service

	E-mail this article
	Add to my bookshelf
	Add to citation manager
	E-mail Alert
	RSS
	Articles by authors
	He Fumei
	Dou Zhenjiang
	Liu Fengyu

Cite this article:

He Fumei,Dou Zhenjiang,Liu Fengyu. Does US Economic Policy Uncertainty Affect China's Technological Innovation?[J]. , 2019, 0(9): 173-181.

URL:

http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/ OR http://www.zgkjlt.org.cn/EN/Y2019/V0/I9/173

[1]刘伟.经济新常态与供给侧结构性改革[J].管理世界,2016 (7):1-9.
[2]BAKER S R,BLOOM N,DAVIS S J.Measuring economic policy uncertainty[J].The quarterly journal of economics,2016,131 (4):1593-1636.
[3]LUNIESKI C.Commodity price volatility and monetary policy uncertainty:A GARCH estimation[J].Issues in political economy,2009(19):108-124.
[4]ARBATLI E C,DAVIS S J,ITO A,et al.Policy uncertainty in Japan[R].National Bureau of Economic Research,2017.
[5]JULIO B,YOOK Y.Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles[J].The journal of finance,2012,67 (1):45-83.
[6]FUSS S,JOHANSSON D J A,SZOLGAYOVA J,et al.Impact of climate policy uncertainty on the adoption of electricity generating technologies[J].Energy policy,2009,37 (2):733-743.
[7]BHATTACHARYA U,HSU P H,TIAN X,et al.What affects innovation more:Policy or policy uncertainty[J].Journal of financial and quantitative analysis,2017,52 (5):1869-1901.
[8]BIANCO M,BONTEMPI M E,GOLINELLI R,et al.Family firms′ investments,uncertainty and opacity[J].Small business economics,2013,40 (4):1035-1058.
[9]BORDO M D,DUCA J V,KOCH C.Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel:Aggregate and bank level US evidence over several decades[J].Journal of financial stability,2016,26:90-106.
[10]CHI Q,LI W.Economic policy uncertainty,credit risks and banks′ lending decisions:Evidence from Chinese commercial banks[J].China journal of accounting research,2017,10 (1):33-50.
[11]KANG W,RATTI R A.Oil shocks,policy uncertainty and stock market return[J].Journal of international financial markets,institutions and money,2013,26:305-318.
[12]ABEL A B.Optimal investment under uncertainty[J].The American economic review,1983,73 (1):228.
[13]COLOMBO V.Economic policy uncertainty in the US:Does it matter for the Euro area[J].Economics letters,2013,121 (1):39-42.
[14]KLÖBNER S,SEKKEL R.International spillovers of policy uncertainty[J].Economics letters,2014,124 (3):508-512.
[15]BERNAL O,GNABO J Y,GUILMIN G.Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone[J].Journal of international money and finance,2016,65:24-45.
[16]KO J H,LEE C M.International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices:Wavelet approach[J].Economics letters,2015,134:118-122.
[17]BELKE A,OSOWSKI T.International effects of euro area versus US policy uncertainty:A FAVAR approach[J].Economic inquiry,2019,57 (1):453-481.
[18]ANTONAKAKIS N,GUPTA R,ANDRÉ C.Dynamic co-movements between economic policy uncertainty and housing market returns[J].Journal of real estate portfolio management,2015,21 (1):53-60.
[19]CAGGIANO G,CASTELNUOVO E,FIGUERES J M.Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States:A nonlinear approach[J].Economics letters,2017,151:31-34.
[20]杨海生,陈少凌,罗党论,等.政策不稳定性与经济增长——来自中国地方官员变更的经验证据[J].管理世界,2014 (9):13-28.
[21]黄宁,郭平.经济政策不确定性对宏观经济的影响及其区域差异——基于省级面板数据的PVAR模型分析[J].财经科学,2015 (6):61-70.
[22]亚琨,罗福凯,李启佳.经济政策不确定性、金融资产配置与创新投资[J].财贸经济,2018,39 (12):95-110.
[23]张兵兵,田曦.目的国经济政策不确定性如何影响中国企业的出口产品质量[J].世界经济研究,2018 (12):60-71+133.
[24]谭小芬,张凯,耿亚莹.全球经济政策不确定性对新兴经济体资本流动的影响[J].财贸经济,2018,39 (3):35-49.
[25]SARALA R M,VAARA E.Cultural differences,convergence,and crossvergence as explanations of knowledge transfer in international acquisitions[J].Journal of international business studies,2010,41 (8):1365-1390.
[26]HANDLEY K,LIMAO N.Trade and investment under policy uncertainty:Theory and firm evidence[J].American economic journal:economic policy,2015,7 (4):189-222.
[27]PRIMICERI G E.Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy[J].The review of economic studies,2005,72 (3):821-852.
[28]HO S W,ZHANG J,ZHOU H.Hot money and quantitative easing:The spillover effects of US monetary policy on Chinese housing,equity and loan markets[R].Federal reserve bank of dallas working paper,2014 (211).
[29]金春雨,张龙.美联储货币政策对中国经济的冲击[J].中国工业经济,2017 (1):25-42.
[30]DANG J,MOTOHASHI K.Patent statistics:A good indicator for innovation in China? Patent subsidy program impacts on patent quality[J].China economic review,2015,35:137-155.