|
|
|
| The Impact of China-US Trade Friction on China's Industry and Economy Based on Section 301 Investigation Report on China in 2018 |
| Qu Yue1,Qin Xiaoyu2,Huang Haigang3,Xia Youfu3 |
1.School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China;
2.School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;
3.Strategy Center for China's Open Economy and International Technology Cooperation,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract Based on the Section 301 investigation report on China in 2018,this paper analyzes impact of the Section 301 investigation on China's industry and the overall economic development with the GTAP model.The evolution of section 301 reflects the shift of American trade policies.Though the frequency of Section 301 investigation has decreased significantly since the establishment of the WTO,the trade protectionism in USA is still relatively strong.Section 301 investigation in 2018 will have a negative impact on the current development of China's various industrial sectors,espacially on high and new technology industries,such as China's transportation,electronics,machinery,aviation,information and medicine.Among them,the machinery manufacturing represented by robots,and transportation represented by new energy vehicles,will get most severely damaged.Before China takes countermeasures,the United States will have some improvement in terms of trade balance and social welfare.But if the trade friction escalates,it is bound to have a negative impact on both economies.In addition,trade frictions will raise the social welfare of the major trading partners of China and the United States,and also bring them a different degree of trade deficit.
|
|
Received: 02 April 2018
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 邝艳湘.经济相互依赖与中美贸易摩擦:基于多阶段博弈模型的研究[J] .国际贸易问题,2010(11):36-43.
[2] ZHANG J L.U.S.-China trade issues after the WTO and the PNTR deal:a Chinese perspective[R] .Hoover Essays in Public Policy,No.103,2000:1-24.
[3] CHAD P B.Rogue 301:Trump to Dust Off Another Outdated US Trade Law[N/OL] .https://pi-ie.com/research /china,August 3,2017.
[4] ROBERT C F.The effects of U.S.trade protection and promotion policies[M] .University of Chicago Press,1997:117-128.
[5] 任靓.特朗普贸易政策与美对华“301调查”[J] .国际贸易问题,2017(12):153-165.
[6] 孙丽,王厚双.特朗普启动对华“301调查”的目的与影响透视[J] .国际贸易,2017(9):28-32.
[7] DANIELA B.Constraining and supporting effects of the multilateral trading system on U.S.unilateralism[R] .Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies Working Paper,No:09/2010.
[8] 于铁流,李秉祥.中美贸易摩擦的原因及其解决对策[J] .管理世界,2004(9):67-72.
[9] 冯伟业,卫平.中美贸易知识产权摩擦研究——以“337 调查”为例[J] .中国经济问题,2017 (2):118-124.
[10] 侯俊军,王耀中.中美、日美纺织品贸易摩擦比较及其启示[J] .国际贸易问题,2006(4):34-38.
[11] 荣华英,李倩玮,黄玉蓓.美国对华启动301贸易调查的原因及影响分析[J] .对外经贸,2017 (10):19-21.
[12] 刘英奎,刘润丰.美国301调查的影响及中国的应对策略[J] .开发性金融研究,2017(5):29-36.
[13] RALPH O.Trade wars and trade talks with data[R] .NBER Working Paper,No.17347,August 2011,Revised January 2014.
[14] GUO M X,LU L,SHENG L G,YU M J.The day after tomorrow:evaluating the burden of Trump's trade war[J] .The Asian economic panel and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,2018,17(1):101-120.
[15] 易继明,李春晖.美对华启动301调查与我国的应对措施[J] .西北大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,48(1):65-81. |
|
|
|
2018, Vol. 0 
