Research on the Economic Growth Potential of Developing Countries from the Perspective of Technology Gap——Empirical Test Based on Panel Data of 65 Developing Countries
Xu Shidao, Wu Jingwei
School of Business,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093,China
Abstract：Economic growth potential is a direct reflection of a country's advantages in capital,innovation and other factors in the medium and long term development,and technology gap may be one of the important factors affecting the growth potential of countries.This paper selects the data of 65 developing countries or regions from 2005 to 2018 to empirically test the impact of technology gap on economic growth potential,and found that the technology gap in developing countries has a significant U-shaped impact on economic growth potential.When the technology gap is less than the critical value,the technology gap significantly inhibits the economic growth potential;Significantly when technology gap is larger than the critical value,this conclusion is still valid when endogenous problem of the variable been controlled.The mechanism analysis shows that per capita GDP plays a significant role in the process of technology gap affecting economic growth potential.This suggests that there may be an optimal level of technological gap as developing countries catch up with developed countries,and that the so-called “late-mover advantage”may not exist.
许士道, 吴敬伟. 技术差距视角下发展中国家经济增长潜力研究——基于65个发展中国家面板数据的实证检验[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2021(6): 180-188.
Xu Shidao, Wu Jingwei. Research on the Economic Growth Potential of Developing Countries from the Perspective of Technology Gap——Empirical Test Based on Panel Data of 65 Developing Countries. , 2021(6): 180-188.
[1]FUCHS B,THURNER S.Behavioral and network origins of wealth inequality:insights from a virtual world[J].PLOS one,2014, (9):1-30. [2]BARRO R,SALA-I-MARTIN X.Technological diffusion,convergence,and growth[J].Social science electronic publishing,1997,2,1-26. [3]KRUGMAN P.The myth of Asia's miracle[J].Foreign affairs,1994,73 (6):62-78. [4]GERSCHENKRON A.Economic backwardness in historic perspective[M].Boston:The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press,1962. [5]BREZIS E S,KRUGMAN P R,TSIDDON D.Leapfrogging in international competition:a theory of cycles in national technological leadership[J].American economic review,1993,83 (5):1211-1219. [6]ENCAOUA D,ULPH D.Catching-up or leapfrogging:the effects of competition on innovation and growth[J].Social science electronic publishing,2015,1-37. [7]FURUKAWA,YUICHI.Leapfrogging cycles in international competition[J].Economic theory,2015,59 (2):401-433. [8]ACEMOGLU D,ZILIBOTTI F,AGHION P.Distance to frontier,selection,and economic growth[J].Social science electronic publishing,2010,4 (1):37-74. [9]CHANG S,KIM H,SONG J,et al.Imitation to innovation:late movers' catch-up strategy and technological leadership change[J].Academy of management annual meeting proceedings,2015,10(1):1-47. [10]ZHAO J,SERIEUX J.Globalization,regionalization and convergence in East Asia[J].Journal of international trade & economic development,2018, 28(3):1-22. [11]GROSSMAN G M,HELPMAN E.Quality ladders in the theory of growth[J].Review of economic studies,1991,58 (1):43-61. [12]易先忠,张亚斌.技术差距与人力资本约束下的技术进步模式[J].管理科学学报,2008,11 (6):51-60. [13]HARRIS C D.The market as a factor in the localization of industry in the United States[J].Annals of the association of American geographers,1954,44 (4):315-348. [14]潘文卿.中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应[J].经济研究,2012,47 (1):54-65. [15]毛艳华,李敬子.中国服务业出口的本地市场效应研究[J].经济研究,2015,50 (8):98-113. [16]HANSON G H.Market potential,increasing returns and geographic concentration[J].Journal of international economics,2005,67 (1):1-24. [17]CHO S H,KIM H G.Intellectual property rights protection and technological innovation[J].Multinational business review,2017,25 (4):350-368. [18]REDDING S,STURM D.The costs of remoteness:evidence from the German division and re-unification[J].American economic review,2008,98 (5):1766-1797. [19]HEAD K,MAYER T.Illusory border effects:distance mismeasurement inflates estimates of home bias in trade[M].Paris:CEPII,2002. [20]AGHION P,BLUNDELL R,GRIFFITH R,et al.The effects of entry on incumbent innovation and productivity[J].The review of economics and statistics,2009,91 (1):20-32. [21]SPOLAORE E,WACZIARG R.Long-term barriers to the international diffusion of innovations[J].Social science electronic publishing,2011,8 (9):53-55. [22]范子英,张军.财政分权、转移支付与国内市场整合[J].经济研究,2010,45 (3):53-64. [23]ACEMOGLU D.Introduction to modern economic growth[M].Princeton:Princeton University Press,2012. [24]COHEN W M,LEVINTHAL D A.Absorptive capacity:a new perspective on learning and innovation[J].Administrative science quarterly,1990,35 (1):128-152. [25]VERSPAGEN B.A new empirical approach to catching up or falling behind[J].Structural change and economic dynamics,1991,2 (2):359-380. [26]SHEN K,WANG J,WHALLEY J.Measuring changes in the bilateral technology gaps between China,India and the U.S.1979-2008[R].NBER working paper,2015. [27]BONDAREV A.Intensity of R&D competition and the generation of innovations in heterogeneous setting[J].Journal of evolutionary economics,2016,26:1-34. [28]AMSDEN A H,HIKINO T.Project execution capability,organizational know:how and conglomerate corporate growth in late industrialization[J].Industrial & corporate change,1994,3 (1):111-147.
2021, 
