Abstract：Since the Sino-US trade war, the U.S.government has set up a series of technical barriers by strengthening export controls.In this environment, based on the technical barriers analysis, using patent comparative analysis, Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF)and content analysis method, the paper finds out the inferior technology of China's aerospace industry.Combined with the US commerce control list, the paper further excavates the core technical direction of suppressing the development of China's aerospace industry which urgently need to break through technical barriers from the perspective of micro-level competitive intelligence, and tries to provide a new perspective and method for the industrial core technology foresight.
张秀妮, 辛一, 任蔷. 技术壁垒环境下产业核心技术预见方法研究——以航空航天产业为例[J]. 中国科技论坛, 2020(8): 15-23.
Zhang Xiuni, Xin Yi, Ren Qiang. Research on Foresighting Method of Industrial Core Technologies in the Environment of Technical Barriers ——Taking the Aerospace Industry as an Example. , 2020(8): 15-23.
[1]浦根祥, 孙中峰, 万劲波.试论技术预见理论的基本假设[J].自然辩证法研究, 2002 (7):40-43.
[2]WAGNER C S, POPPER S W.Identifying critical technolo-gies in the United States:a review of the federal effort[J].Journal of forecasting, 2003, 22 (2-3):113-128.
[3]KLUSACEK K.Selection of research priorities:method of critical technologies[EB/OL].(2006-1-20).http://www.Tc.cz /files / istec_publications/unido-course-critical-technologies-1029-1.pdf.
[4]KEENAN M.Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:the UK experience[J].Journal of forecasting, 2003, 22 (2):129-160.
[5]CHULHYUN Kim, HAKYEON Lee, HYEONJU Seol, et al.Identifying core technologies based on technological cross-impacts:an association rule mining (ARM)and analytic network process (ANP)approach[J].Expert systems with applications, 2011 (38):12559-12564.
[6]CHO T S, SHIH H Y.Patent citation network analysis of core and emerging technologies in Taiwan:1997—2008[J].Scientometrics, 2011, 89 (3):795-811.
[7]PARK H, YOON J.Assessing coreness and intermediarity of technology sectors using patent coclassification analysis:the case of Korean national R＆D[J].Scientometrics, 2014 (98):853-890.
[8]张惠琴, 邵云飞, 张宇翔.基于专利分析的产品技术成熟度预测——以液晶显示技术为例[J].技术经济, 2016, 33 (10):1-7.
[9]汤勇力, 李剑敏, 李从东, 等.面向制造企业价值链升级的产业关键技术识别研究[J].科学学研究, 2016 (12):1777-1788.
[10]李佳佳, 马铁驹.基于专利数据的风能核心技术识别及趋势分析[J].科技管理研究, 2017, 37 (12):129-136.
[11]张迎新, 刘翔宇.基于专利共类的高端机床制造核心技术关联特征识别——以五轴联动数控机床为例[J].情报杂志, 2018, 37 (2):50-56.
[12]李姝影, 张鑫, 许轶, 等.核心专利集筛选及专利技术主题识别影响[J].情报学报, 2019, 38 (1):13-20.
[13]百度百科.航空航天[EB/OL]. (2018-10-31)[2019-07-14].https://baike.baidu.com/item/航空航天/939032?fr=aladdin.
[14]炮火笔记.全球航空产业大排名, 猜猜测中国排第几[EB/OL]. (2018-11-15)[2019-07-14].http://wemedia.ifeng.com/88019887/wemedia.shtml.
[15]Regulations/export-administration-regulations[EB/OL]. (2019-8-15)[2019-07-14].https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php.
[16]MARK Altaweel, CHRISTOPHER Bone, JESSE Abrams.Documents as data:a content analysis and topic modeling approach for analyzing responses to ecological disturbances[J].Ecological informatics, 2019, 51 (2):82-95.
2020, 
