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| Simulation and Prediction on the Effect of Industrial Structure Adjustment to Environmental Pollution in China Based on System Dynamics |
| Han Nan |
School of Economics&
Management,Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066004,China |
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Abstract The system dynamics model on the effect of industrial structure to environmental pollution is built based on the systems of environmental pollution,industrial structure and their influencing subsystems.The future development trend of environmental pollution in China can be predicted after the effectiveness test of model.Furthermore,through the proper regulations of system parameters,the future changes of environmental pollution can be simulated and predicted in different control schemes such as adjusting industrial structure,scientific and technological intensity and energy intensity.The results indicate that industrial waste gas emissions,industrial waste water emissions and industrial solid waste outputs in China would be expected to reach 117 619 billion standard cubic meters,14.698 billion tons and 11.557 billion tons respectively by 2022,according to the existing law of development.In addition,adjusting industrial structure,increasing scientific and technological intensity and reducing energy intensity will lead to the obvious decrease of environmental pollution emissions
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Received: 30 December 2015
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