|
|
|
| Empirical Analysis on Energy Intensity Difference of Chinese Provincial Regions Based on Cusp Catastrophe Model |
| Ye Cuihong1,Zhao Yulin2 |
1.School of Economics,Huazhong University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430074,China;
2.School of Economics,Wuhan University of Technology;Hubei Provincial Research Center for Scientific and Technological Innovation and Economic Development,Wuhan 430070,China |
|
|
|
|
Abstract It gives an empirical test on stochastic cusp catastrophe model of energy intensity of Chinese provincial regions,using energy intensity as state variable,technological progress and industrial structure optimization as independent observational variables,and reveals the inner mechanism of regional difference of energy intensity.The results show that,there exists dynamic mechanism of cusp catastrophe among energy intensity,technological progress and industrial structure optimization;industrial structure optimization level is the key factor of regional difference of energy intensity at present,each province should make the industrial structure optimization and upgrading as the important way to reduce energy intensity,while for regions of different technological progress level,the way to adjust and optimize industrial structure should have some difference;in the long term,promoting the technological progress level is the only way to reduce energy intensity.
|
|
Received: 09 April 2014
|
|
|
|
|
|
[1] 刘凤朝,潘雄锋,徐国泉.基于结构份额与效率份额的中国能源消费强度研究[J].资源科学,2007,(7):2-6.
[2]Kambara T.The Energy Situation in China[J].China Quarterly,1992,(131):608-636.
[3]World Bank.Clear Water,Blue Skies:China's Environment in the New Century[M].D.C.:World Bank,Washington,1997.
[4]齐志新,陈文颖.结构调整还是技术进步?[J].上海经济研究,2006,(6):8-16.
[5]董锋,龙如银,周德群,李晓晖.产业结构技术进步对外开放程度与单位GDP能耗-基于省级面板数据和协整方法[J].管理学报,2012,(4):603-610.
[6]刘畅,崔艳红.中国能源消耗强度区域差异的动态关系比较研究-基于省(市)面板数据模型的实证分析[J].中国工业经济.2008,(4):34-43.
[7]Varian H R.Catastrophe Theory and the Business Cycle[J].Economic Inquiry,1979,(17):14-28.
[8]Lange R,McDade S,Oliva T A.Technological Choice and Network Externalities:a Catastrophe Model Analysis of Firm Software Adoption for Competing Operating Systems[J].Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,2001,(12):29-57.
[9]Barunik J,Vosvrda M.Can a Stochastic Cusp Catastrophe Model Explain Stock Market Crashes?[J].Journal of Economic,Dynamics & Control,2009,(33):1824-1836.
[10]Rosser Jr J B.The Rise and Fall of Catastrophe Theory Applications in Economics:Was the Baby Thrown Out with the Bathwater?[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,2007,(10):3255-3280.
[11]Grasman R P P P,Maas H L J V D.Wagenmakers E J.Fitting the Cusp Catastrophe in R:a Cusp Package Primer[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2009,32(8):1-27.
[12]中国经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.资本化扩张与赶超型经济的技术进步[J].经济研究,2010,(5):4-20. |
|
|
|
2014, Vol. 0 
