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| Research on Low-carbon Optimization of Energy Consumption Structure Based on Scenario Analysis |
| Wang Shaohua1, Yu Weiyang1, Zhang Wei2, Fan Decheng3 |
1.School of Economics and Management, Yanshan University, Qinhuangdao 066004, China;
2.School of Economics and Business, Northeastern University at Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao 066004, China;
3.School of Economics and Management, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin 150001, China |
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Abstract This paper uses goal programming method to build the optimization model of energy consumption structure, and makes the optimization simulation of energy consumption structure in 2020.Results are as follows.Firstly, in the policy scenario, optimization of energy consumption structure can not reach the emission reduction commitment of 2020, which can contribute 80.87%.Secondly, in the low carbon scenario, the carbon intensity would drop to 3.916728 ton carbon per 1000 yuan(RMB), below the target level.Thirdly, the energy consumption structure will still be dominated by coal consumption in short time.Fourthly, energy conservation and emission reduction are tough to be achieved at the same time by the optimization of energy consumption structure.
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Received: 29 October 2013
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2014, Vol. 0 
