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| The Volatility and Growth Trend of Three-industry and China's Macroeconomic |
| Pan Liuquan,Wang Yuxia |
| School of Business,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210023,China |
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Abstract Based on the classical theories of H-P filtering method,this articles estimates fundamental characteristics of china's economic volatility with separating fluctuation element and trend element in economic time series by technique and eliminating effects from short-term volatility and long-term trend.Based on the correlative coefficients of H-P filtering results,it analyzes the fluctuant correlation between GDP and Three-Industry in the period of 1978—2011.Then,it sets the double logarithm function model to estimate growth trend of GDP and three-industry,which sets estimation of interval from 2013 to 2020
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Received: 17 September 2013
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2014, Vol. 0 
